Published on behalf of some friends.
WR Bust Rate in the National Football League
Rounds 1 and 2
2007-2015 data
Background:
Between 2007 and 2015, 62 Wide Receivers were selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft with three potential hall of famers. Julio Jones (2011), Calvin Johnson (2007) and Steve Smith (2007) although Steve Smith will be argumentative and excluding Smith results in a 3.22% chance of drafting a Hall of Famer.
Drafting Hall of Famers makes winning an American Football game easier. Titles are what we care about and drafting a Hall of Fame QB gives about a 37% chance of winning a Super Bowl … once your first round quarterback developed into a franchise quarterback and long after your oganization is dishing out the big bucks for a third contract. What are the odds Baker Mayfield is offered a third contract by the Cleveland Browns? What are the odds of drafting a Hall of Fame quarterback?
Every model requires principles. Here are some basic drafting principles essential to the predictive analytical model being developed by all 32 NFL teams. Some of you are way behind. So far behind, we are going to publish this paper as a freebie.
The Miami Dolphins are copycats but are in a solid second place when it comes to building the predictive analytical model for not only draft picks but success in the NFL 2020 and beyond. The Dolphins have torn down the salary cap creating massive space and enduring a likely 0-16 season as a result. Learn from the mistakes of the team you are copying. Learn from what went right. Show the salary cap teardown and resulting team can go 1-15. Or 2-14. Take the pressure off your organization with the number one pick.
- Are we selecting the most likely Hall of Famer with either of the first two round draft picks?
- Are we selecting the most likely player to receive a second contract?
- Are we selecting based on team needs and factoring upcoming season contracts?
- Sacking the opposing quarterback > franchise QB of our own = Given
- No more trading away the first round draft picks, mmmmmkaaaaaayyyyyyyy?
- Sacking Opposing QB > franchise OTs > franchise QB
Dolphins fans, should you end up with the #1 pick in the NFL draft, the pick is Chase Young. Your second pick in the 2020 NFL Draft should be the best offensive tackle on the board. Trevor Lawrence is there in a fictional 2021 NFL Draft without a Collective Bargaining Agreement. You have multiple first round picks in multiple years an enviable mountain of draft capital. Sacking the opposing QB > franchise QB. Build your roster around Trevor Lawrence, insert him into the lineup Week One 2021 and see what happens. That’s like a freebie because obviously you’re trying to peak at our test papers while the teacher isn’t looking. There’s no need to feel sneaky, it’s obvious the Miami Dolphins are copycats and there are those of us who wish for the Miami Dolphins to do well from the tear down principles they’ve copied to a tee.
There are those of us who wish the salary cap tear down, and resulting performance on the field, can produce a different data point than 0-16. I just want to say good luck Miami Dolphins, we’re all counting on you to Not go 0-16.
This paper already warrants further research to determine percentage of wide receivers making the Hall of Fame drafted between 1993-2007 in the first two rounds.
The goal is to create weights of measure to spin in a NFL Predictive analytical model for winning titles. What can the NFL predictive analytical model expect from drafting a wide receiver in the first two rounds?
62 players require research to determine number of NFL games played, receptions, yards, touchdowns bringing precision to our analysis.
Of the 62 players drafted, how many are categorized as a bust? How many are categorized a “hits”? We can twist the numbers, bend the algorithm, spin the analytics, and watch the resulting predictive analytical model wobble. We can stack the data set and reassemble the tower resulting in more precisely weighed parameters.
What makes an NFL bust? What makes an NFL hit? Dividing a draft “hit” into four categories … a single, a double, a triple and a home run … orbs the data. One can spin the orb, elongate the orb, compress the orb until the crushing weight of accuracy creates a shining star of precision and accuracy to develop a draft pick weight chart, picks 1-64. Create a better chart of just how valuable pick Round 1, Pick 17 is when compared to Round 2, pick 54 overall.
The Jimmy Johnson chart? Giggle. Can the GMs using this chart to determine trades involving draft picks give us a call? We have these WR contracts we don’t like and we always like Your draft picks.
How does our analysis of the 62 wide receivers make our draft pick value chart better? For example, of the 62 wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds between 2007 and 2015, 26, on the surface, are considered busts. One can conclude, on the surface, we have a 41.95% of busting, completely, on a Wide Receiver in the first two rounds. If 26 are clear busts, then 36 are “hits”, on the surface. A flat plane.
We are interested in the deep ocean underneath this flat planed surface consisting of triangles, octagons, pentagons with open space on all five sides for the numbers in the data set to flow downward. Bounce off all the different shapes below sometimes being absorbed by open space in the shapes below. Cascade the algorithm.
The data set can be contracted to sixty Wide Receivers for analysis because the two hall of famers, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson, are in a special category the model is spinning to predict.
One has a 54.8% chance for a hit on a wide receiver when utilizing a first or second round draft pick. One has a 41.95% chance of busting. We’ve already loosened the surface tension on the flat plane surface of the data set because the data set was contracted. The ocean below awaits … the flat surface plane is starting to wriggle, surface tension decreased, the algorithm is wavy.
We can look at the 2010 NFL Draft
The draft class includes a clear bust, Arrelious Benn. But, Benn played in 61 NFL games over five NFL seasons and was derailed by injury making a NFL roster three seasons after tearing his ACL in 2013. Injury in the NFL is the reason our analytical orb, when spinning, will always wobble. Analysis, like this paper, creates less uncertainty inside the orb resulting in less wobble and more accurate predictions. Benn ended his career with 65 receptions, 990 yards, and six touchdowns.
How big of a hit is Dez Bryant? Did Dallas win a title with Dez Bryant? Bryant is fifth all time in franchise receiving history. Eight seasons, 113 games, 531 catches, 7,459 yards with 73 touchdowns. Three career playoff games. The surface is wavy and bending. The surface data is being coerced into a more circular shape with the wavy ocean of shapes underneath.
How big of a hit is Demaryius Thomas? Two Super Bowl appearances, a title, still on a NFL roster ten seasons later. 137 career games, 705 receptions, 9,543, 62 touchdowns. The circular object created by this data set is starting to spin making the spinning ocean shapes bouncy. Dribble the algorithm like a basketball.
How do we measure Golden Tate? Still making plays ten seasons later, 141 NFL Games, 634 receptions, 7,494 yards, 39 TDs. 11 playoff game appearances. And, most importantly, what did Seattle scouting see in Golden Tate others missed? Let’s play catch with the analytical orb scouting.
The 2008 draft class is a list of clear busts with two hits on the surface.
Is Eddie Royal a bust? 116 career games, 408 receptions, 4,357 yards, 28 touchdowns with a 2.70 career fumble rate. The numbers inside the orb slide down the sides of the acute, obtuse, and isosceles triangles. Four career playoff games, no titles.
Dexter Jackson, seven career games, clear bust. Limas Sweed, 20 career games, clear bust. Malcolm Kelly, 21 career games, clear bust. Jerome Thompson, nine career games, clear bust. James Hardy, 16 career games, clear bust. Devin Thomas, 55 career games, 11 starts, likely contributed on special teams. Is this a hit? A single? Donnie Avery, 77 games, 60 starts, 218 receptions, 2,861 yards, 14 TDs. Is Donnie Avery a hit? A single?
Jordy Nelson, 151 games, 613 receptions, 8,587 yards, 72 touchdowns, 1.30 fumble rate.
DeSean Jackson, rostered 11 seasons later, 155 career games, 597 receptions, 10,415 yards, 55 touchdowns. These are clear hits.
Utilizing two years of data, 14 drafted players played a combined 1,072 (and counting) NFL games. One could conclude drafting a wide receiver in the first two rounds results in an average of 76.57 NFL games played, or an average of 4.78 NFL seasons.
A 7% chance of drafting a 10,000+ yard receiver.
The two year data set has 347 touchdowns dispersed among the 14 drafted players. One could conclude a first or second round receiver will play roughly five seasons and score 24 touchdowns.
These conclusions are flawed because they are mostly linear and there are not enough data points in the set. More years have to be analyzed.
This process should be conducted on all 22 positions.
Draft Value Chart – Wide Receiver, Rounds 1-2
Playoff Game Appearances – 2.361 per occurrence
Title Game Appearances – 3.361 per occurrence
Titles – 4.361 per occurence
NFL Game Played – 1.000 per occurrence
Touchdowns -.028 per occurrence
Reception – .005 per occurrence
Receiving Yard – ..010 per occurrence
Rushing yard – .020 per occurrence
Fumble – (-.050 per occurrence)
How does a receiving yard impact the outcome of a NFL game? Well, if the receiving yard was fourth and one down by five with three seconds on the clock, the receiving yard was pretty important. How do we factor receiving yards in weighting the value of picks 1-64 for our organization’s custom draft value chart when we are trying to make a decision on a wide receiver.
Sacks > OTs > Lock down press man coverage CB > franchise QB. Copycats, you already have this asset, a lock down corner. Pay him, pay ‘dis man his money. And, we went 1-15 year one. 0-16 happened year two. An almost non losing season year three. Year four came from expectations because parts of the analytical process is working and producing desirable results.
Our model is predicting six wins in the final nine games. 8-8 was not the expected outcome year three, especially our fans. Some of us tried to temper expectations because while our model predicted a winning season year four, 11-5 has missed the playoffs in the AFC in the past 15 seasons.
We look for answers to improve our model. Regression. Coaching. Parameters so far ahead of where the Dolphins are as an organization we feel free to share it. Clearly offensive line play and quarterback play have regressed for the revolutionary pioneers in a process of making better decisions regarding something very simple … winning titles in the National Football League.
No more trading away the first round draft picks, mmmmkaaaayyyyyyy?